Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

Russian casualties in Ukraine.
Mediazona count, updated

Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers, continues collecting data on Russian military casualties in Ukraine. The numbers provided are derived from publicly available sources, such as social media posts by family members, local news reports, and official announcements from regional authorities. However, it is important to note that these figures offer only a partial picture and do not encompass the full scope of the casualties.

To address this, we present an additional figure alongside the count of named death records. This second number is an estimate of excess mortality among men, derived from the Probate Registry database. The methodology for this estimate was developed in partnership with Meduza.

ЧИТАТЬ НА РУССКОМ

About Our Reports

This report is divided into two main sections:

Bi-weekly Summary. This section is updated every two weeks and provides a written overview of our most recent findings on Russian military casualties. We also identify the events at the front lines that have led to the deaths of Russian soldiers.

Interactive Infographics. The second section showcases visual representations of the casualties since the beginning of the war. These infographics include information such as the military units in which the deceased served and the regions where they lived. While the data in this section is regularly updated, the accompanying text descriptions are revised but largely remain the same.

For a comprehensive explanation of the methodology used to estimate the number of deaths based on data from the Probate Registry, please follow the link.

Last update of the names list: June 21, 2024

Last update of the Probate Registry estimate: March 15, 2024

We skipped the update on June 7 because we were working on a big investigation of the Wagner PMC casualties in Ukraine (you can read it if you follow the link below).

But in the meantime, in the last four weeks our database has grown by 2,600 names (about 650 names a week, which is an average number for 2024 in general).

We didn’t add all of the inmates recruited by Wagner to our total casualties count. This will take time, and we’ll be adding them in stages: we are now comparing the two lists and searching for matches.

As of today, we can say that from nearly 20,000 names in the Wagner files, we found 7,630 in our casualties database. At least 4,200 names are definitely new and don’t match any of our previous casualties records. We will also need to check another 5,800 manually: some of them have matches partial matches in names, for some we don’t have a date of death in our primary database. The rest of Wagner records lack names (only call signs, dog tag numbers, and dates of death).

In the last four weeks, we also added ten more names to our list of officers in the rank of Lieutenant Colonel and higher. Four of them are colonels. Dmitry Mikushin, weapons officer of the 228th Motorised Rifle Regiment, Roman Guryanov who most likely served in the Eastern Military District HQ, Andrei Naryshkin whose place of service we could not identify, and finally, Andrei Kozeyechev—he used to serve in the FSB Special Purpose Centre, there was a funeral wreath from “brothers-in-arms of the Sigma group” on his grave.

What we know about the casualties

The distribution of casualties across Russian regions is presented in absolute figures, these numbers have not been adjusted in relation to regional population sizes or the concentration of military units.

Readers can view either overall losses or those specific to different branches of the armed forces. Additionally, there is information regarding the native regions of the mobilised soldiers.

In most cases, the branch of service or the way the deceased ended up in the army (mobilized, volunteer, inmate, etc.) can be determined from the death reports or indirectly, through uniform or sleeve patches in photos.

We compared these groups of military personnel in a separate chart to provide a clearer picture of the distribution of casualties among different categories of soldiers.

Since the summer, volunteer units bore the brunt of casualties, a stark contrast to the war’s initial phase. During the winter and early spring, the heaviest losses were sustained by the Airborne Forces, followed by the Motorised Rifle Troops.

By the end of 2022 and entering the new year, there was a marked increase in fatalities among prisoners conscripted into the Wagner PMC. These conscripts were formed into “assault groups” for offensives against Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut.

By March 2023, these prisoners represented the largest single category of losses in the conflict. Following the assault on Bakhmut, there have been no reported instances of mass deployment of these prisoner units.

As of May 24, the confirmed death toll among Russian army officers and other security forces surpassed 3,600, with 424 of these officers being of Lieutenant Colonel rank or higher.

Officers killed in Ukraine

As of today, official confirmation has been received regarding the deaths of two deputy army commanders: Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky of the 41st Army, and Major General Vladimir Frolov of the 8th Army.

In late May 2022, retired Major General Kanamat Botashev, 63, a former fighter pilot, was killed, presumably having volunteered for combat. Additionally, Captain 1st Rank Andrei Paliy, the deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet, was also reported among the casualties. On June 5, 2022, the death of Major General Roman Kutuzov was reported.

In June 2023, the death of Major General Sergei Goryachev was announced. He served as the chief of staff for the 35th Combined Arms Army, responsible for confronting the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia region.

By July 2023, the death of the first Lieutenant General, Oleg Tsokov, deputy commander of the Southern Military District, was confirmed.

In November 2023, Major General Vladimir Zavadsky was killed. He served as the deputy commander of the 14th Army Corps.

Over 43,500 reports specify the dates of military personnel deaths. While the daily loss figures derived from this data may not accurately reflect the total casualties, they provide an indication of the intensity of the fighting on specific days.

It is important to note that the most recent data is likely to be incomplete and subject to significant revisions in the future.

In 47,300 of the casualty reports, the ages of the deceased are mentioned. In the initial six months of the conflict, characterized by the deployment of regular military forces without the inclusion of volunteers, mobilised troops, or prisoners, the most significant number of fatalities occurred in the 21–23 age group.

The age profile diverges notably for volunteers and mobilised soldiers. Those who volunteer for combat service are predominantly in the age bracket of 30–35 years or older. The mobilised personnel are generally over the age of 25.

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